To Be or Not To Be: The Development of Soviet Deck Aviation

Few issues were as contentious in the development of the Soviet Navy as the role of aircraft carriers and sea-based aviation. Despite the continued insistence by the highest naval authorities and scientific experts that surface combatants simply could not be protected in the open ocean without the support of ship-borne aviation, Soviet leaders – for a variety of reasons – resisted aircraft carrier development until the final decades of the Cold War. In examining one of the most defining and telling asymmetries of the Cold War at sea, the author argues that while the USSR was economically and technologically capable of building aircraft carriers of any class, bureaucratic infighting, misperceptions of cost and practicality, and the inherent flaws of a totalitarian system ultimately created an impossible gap in capabilities between the two sides. The priorities and direction of Soviet weapons and defense technology development during the Cold War was largely a factor of the military-political situation taking shape at home, and in the world. As a rule, the navy was assigned missions that corresponded to its capabilities at a given point in time, rather than the other way around. Often, the navy lacked the material resources needed to implement its core mission. The availability of these resources, in turn, depended on the country's economic situation, its scientific potential, the technological state of its industry, as well as the subjective influence of political and military leaders on the priorities of technological development. The impact of the country's socioeconomic imperatives was undoubtedly also felt in the sluggish pace of development of ship-borne aviation and aircraft carriers in the USSR.     

Bomboozled: How the U.S. Government Misled Itself and Its People into Believing They Could Survive a Nuclear Attack

Bomboozled: How the U.S. Government Misled Itself and Its People into Believing They Could Survive a Nuclear Attack, by Susan Roy. Pointed Leaf Press, 2011. 176 pages, $45.     

Communication: Wrap‐up on the cost of the gulf war

This paper discusses how crises and war may “disrupt” company activities, and how companies adapt to these disruptions. Croatia is used as a case study. The original hypothesis was that war led to breaks in physical flows: in other words, that companies experienced difficulties in importing and obtaining supplies of goods. Instead, it appears that loss of customers and severely worsened conditions of payment were the principal problems for Croatian companies. Although it does not fall within the scope of this investigation, it is interesting to note that the Croatian government has not imposed any direct rationing on the industrial sector, but rather via the banking system.     

BUTTER,GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that defines a two‐sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice‐cream’. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.     

Country failure and social grievances in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949: An economic approach

The Civil War that took place in Greece between the Communist Party and the Centre-Right Government during 1946–1949 is examined from a political economy perspective. The cost of the conflict is measured as output forgone relative to what it would have prevailed had Greece followed a post-war recovery similar to that of other nations in Western Europe. A two-stage approach compares Nazi-occupied countries with neutral ones to assess the cost inflicted by Second World War, and then compares Greece with the former to estimate the impact of the civil conflict. A regional analysis finds that the political discontent was mainly shaped by pre-war socio-economic grievances, rather than being affected by contemporaneous deprivation or driven by class structure as hardliners of both sides preferred to present in pushing for an all-out confrontation. The failure to settle political rivalries and thus prevent the conflict is also discussed.     

A Territorial Conflict: Trade-offs and Strategies

We study a war scenario in which the winner occupies the loser’s territory. Attacking a territory increases the chance of winning, but also causes harm, which in turn decreases the territory’s value (i.e. the reward of winning). This paper highlights the effects of this trade-off on the equilibrium strategies of the warring states in a contest game with endogenous rewards. Providing both static and dynamic models, our analysis captures insights regarding strategic behavior in asymmetric contests with such conflict.     

Asbestos in the collection of the Royal Armouries and the conservation of a First World War German gasmask

In March 2015, in order to comply with Health and Safety Regulations, the Royal Armouries contracted an external company to carry out an asbestos audit. This article looks at what that audit entailed and also how a gasmask suspected of containing asbestos, was made safe in order to conserve and display it.     

基于复杂网络的作战描述模型研究*

针对传统作战模型重点关注兵力的毁伤,不能充分地反映信息时代作战的特点,提出了一个基于复杂网络的作战描述模型,把作战单元抽象成节点,把各单元之间的相互作用抽象成有向边,将战场描述为一个由传感器、决策器、影响器、目标四类节点组成的有向网络图。定义了网络模型的若干特征参数,把作战环看成是反映作战能力的指标,并区别分析了标准作战环和广义作战环,能更好地反映信息时代作战的特点。最后实例研究了传统作战条件下决策器连通程度的变化给作战能力带来的影响。     

装备战损量的兰彻斯特方程预计方法*

针对装备战损量预计这一未来作战装备保障必须解决的核心问题,运用兰彻斯特方程探讨解决途径。从分析影响装备战损的因素出发,综合讨论目前预计装备战损量的方法,提出基于指数多元兰彻斯特方程的装备战损量预计模型和模型中毁伤能力系数的确定方法,得到了装备战损量的兰彻斯特方程预计方法,并举例验证。该方法将经验计算与模拟计算相结合,用较简单的确定性解析方程描述所考虑因素对装备战损量的客观约束关系,较好地满足了未来信息化条件下作战装备战损量预计的需要。